Jaime M. Yassif, Ph.D.
Kevin P. O’Prey, Ph.D.
Christopher R. Isaac, M.Sc.
Strengthening Global Systems
to Prevent and Respond to
High-Consequence Biological Threats
Results from the 2021 Tabletop Exercise Conducted in
Partnership with the Munich Security Conference
SUMMARY
In March 2021, NTI partnered with the Munich Security Conference to
conduct a tabletop exercise on reducing high-consequence biological threats.
e exercise examined gaps in national and international biosecurity and
pandemic preparedness architectures—exploring opportunities to improve
prevention and response capabilities for high-consequence biological
events. is report summarizes the exercise scenario, key ndings from
the discussion, and actionable recommendations for the international
community.
NOVEMBER 2021
NTI Paper
Copyright © 2021 Nuclear reat Initiative
is work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
e views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reect those of the NTI Board of Directors or the institutions with
which they are associated.
We are grateful to Open Philanthropy. e exercise and report would not have been possible without their generous support.
Contents
Acknowledgments .................................................................3
Foreword .........................................................................4
Executive Summary ................................................................6
About the Exercise .................................................................8
Summary of Exercise Discussion and Findings ....................................... 14
Recommendations ............................................................... 22
Appendix A. Expert Contributors to Scenario Development ........................... 27
Appendix B. Epidemiological Model Summary ....................................... 28
About the Authors ............................................................... 32
NTI Paper 3 www.nti.org
Strengthening Global Systems to Prevent and Respond to High-Consequence Biological Threats
Acknowledgments
T
he authors gratefully acknowledge the support of those who were instrumental in the development
and execution of this senior-level tabletop exercise. First, we would like to thank our partners at the
Munich Security Conference, who jointly hosted this exercise with NTI. We are also grateful to the exercise
participants whose valuable insights, expertise, and engagement were crucial to the success of this project.
We also thank Talus Analytics for developing the epidemiological model underpinning this exercise, our
expert advisors who informed the design of the exercise scenario early in the process, and Long Story Short
for producing the exercise videos.
At the Nuclear reat Initiative (NTI), we would like to thank members of the project team, who were
instrumental to the success of this project. Dr. Andrew Hebbeler, who is now serving in government at the
White House Oce of Science and Technology Policy, jointly led the development and planning of this
exercise with Dr. Jaime M. Yassif. Dr. Kevin P. O’Prey facilitated the scenario-based exercise, in addition
to advising on exercise planning and jointly authoring this report. Christopher R. Isaac provided valuable
research assistance for this project, and Amanda Cogan was instrumental in organizing the exercise event.
From NTI’s Communications team, Rachel Staley Grant led the development of video production for this
exercise, and along with Mimi Hall, provided valuable comments on this manuscript and led the report
publication process.
We are grateful to Open Philanthropy for their support for this project as part of their ongoing support of
our work to reduce Global Catastrophic Biological Risks.
Jaime M. Yassif, Ph.D.
Senior Fellow, Global Biological Policy and Programs, NTI
Kevin P. O’Prey, Ph.D.
Managing Partner, e Palisades Group, LLC
Christopher R. Isaac, M.Sc.
Program Assistant, Global Biological Policy and Programs, NTI